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Resultados de análisis estadístico "Su cultura los hace pobres"

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Estos son los resultados que respaldan el análisis.

 

********************************************************************
. ** LAPOP: Cultura democratica de Guateamala 2012
. ** Racismo
. ** Javier Brolo (jbrolo@asies.org.gt)
. ** Febrero 2013
. ********************************************************************

(All data are copyrighted by LAPOP. For more info, run the command note list)
.
. ** VARIABLE DEPENDIENTE
. ** rac1ca: cultura causa pobreza dicotomica (racismo)
. **
. ** VARIABLES INDEPENDIENTES
. ** ur: urbano dicotomica (urbano)
. ** q2: edad ordinal
. ** ed: educacion ordinal
. ** etid: etnia dicotomica (indigena)
. ** q3ca: religion dicotomica (catolico)
. ** sexi: sexo (entrevistador) dicotomica (mujer)
. ** colori: color de piel ordinal
. ** q10new: ingreso en el hogar ordinal
. **
. ** VARIABLES MUESTRA
. ** upm: unidad primaria de muestreo
. ** prov: departamento
. ** municipio:
. ** tamano: tama~o del lugar
.
. ** Resumir base de datos
. keep rac1ca ur q2 ed etid q3ca sexi colori q10new upm prov municipio tamano idnum

.
. ** Recodificacion de variables
. label define binaria 1 "si" 0 "no"

. ** Dependiente
. recode rac1ca (1=1) (2=0) (3=.), gen(racismo)
(415 differences between rac1ca and racismo)

. label var racismo "Considera cultura causa pobreza"

. label values racismo binaria

. ** Independientes
. recode ur (1=1) (2=0), gen(urbano)
(809 differences between ur and urbano)

. label var urbano "urbano"

. label values urbano binaria

. label var q2 "edad"

. label var ed "a~os de educacion"

. recode etid (3=1) (2 7 = 0), gen(indigena)
(1502 differences between etid and indigena)

. label var indigena "indigena"

. label values indigena binaria

. recode q3ca (101 = 1) (102/1003 = 0), gen(catolico)
(1486 differences between q3ca and catolico)

. label var catolico "catolico"

. label values catolico binaria

. recode sexi (1=0) (2=1), gen(mujer)
(1505 differences between sexi and mujer)

. label var mujer "mujer"

. label values mujer binaria

. label var colori "color de piel"

. label var q10new "ingresos del hogar"

.
. ** Logit
. stepwise, pr(0.05): logit racismo urbano q2 ed indigena catolico mujer colori q10new
begin with full model
p = 0.8063 >= 0.0500 removing indigena
p = 0.6890 >= 0.0500 removing catolico
p = 0.5367 >= 0.0500 removing q2
p = 0.4654 >= 0.0500 removing colori
p = 0.2982 >= 0.0500 removing urbano
p = 0.1876 >= 0.0500 removing ed

Logistic regression Number of obs = 467
LR chi2(2) = 36.94
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -295.90925 Pseudo R2 = 0.0587

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
racismo | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
q10new | -.1374306 .027432 -5.01 0.000 -.1911964 -.0836648
mujer | .4966472 .2023209 2.45 0.014 .1001056 .8931888
_cons | .1306715 .1913668 0.68 0.495 -.2444005 .5057435
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ** significativo: mujer q10new
.
. ** Diagnostico
. predict rresid, rs
(1042 missing values generated)

. scatter rresid q10new

. fitstat

Measures of Fit for logit of racismo

Log-Lik Intercept Only: -314.377 Log-Lik Full Model: -295.909
D(464): 591.818 LR(2): 36.936
Prob > LR: 0.000
McFadden's R2: 0.059 McFadden's Adj R2: 0.049
ML (Cox-Snell) R2: 0.076 Cragg-Uhler(Nagelkerke) R2: 0.103
McKelvey & Zavoina's R2: 0.101 Efron's R2: 0.081
Variance of y*: 3.659 Variance of error: 3.290
Count R2: 0.645 Adj Count R2: 0.112
AIC: 1.280 AIC*n: 597.818
BIC: -2260.078 BIC': -24.644
BIC used by Stata: 610.257 AIC used by Stata: 597.818

. estat classification

Logistic model for racismo

-------- True --------
Classified | D ~D | Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
+ | 65 44 | 109
- | 122 236 | 358
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
Total | 187 280 | 467

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5
True D defined as racismo != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 34.76%
Specificity Pr( -|~D) 84.29%
Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 59.63%
Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 65.92%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 15.71%
False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 65.24%
False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 40.37%
False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 34.08%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified 64.45%
--------------------------------------------------

. ** distribucion de residuos relativamente aceptable
. ** modelo es significativo (Prob > LR 0.000)
. ** aumenta 11.2% prediccion (Adj Count R2)
.
. ** Interpretacion
. listcoef

logit (N=467): Factor Change in Odds

Odds of: si vs no

----------------------------------------------------------------------
racismo | b z P>|z| e^b e^bStdX SDofX
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
q10new | -0.13743 -5.010 0.000 0.8716 0.5883 3.8599
mujer | 0.49665 2.455 0.014 1.6432 1.2714 0.4834
----------------------------------------------------------------------

. ** Mujer tiene un efecto mayor
. prchange mujer, fromto

logit: Changes in Probabilities for racismo

from: to: dif: from: to: dif: from: to:
x=min x=max min->max x=0 x=1 0->1 x-1/2 x+1/2
mujer 0.3487 0.4680 0.1193 0.3487 0.4680 0.1193 0.3342 0.4520

dif: from: to: dif:
-+1/2 x-1/2sd x+1/2sd -+sd/2 MargEfct
mujer 0.1178 0.3634 0.4205 0.0571 0.1183

no si
Pr(y|x) 0.6084 0.3916

q10new mujer
x= 5.49679 .37045
sd_x= 3.85987 .483443

. ** Ser mujer aumenta la probabilidad de racismo en 11.9%
. prchange q10new, fromto

logit: Changes in Probabilities for racismo

from: to: dif: from: to: dif: from: to:
x=min x=max min->max x=0 x=1 0->1 x-1/2 x+1/2
q10new 0.5780 0.1319 -0.4461 0.5780 0.5442 -0.0338 0.4080 0.3753

dif: from: to: dif:
-+1/2 x-1/2sd x+1/2sd -+sd/2 MargEfct
q10new -0.0327 0.4562 0.3305 -0.1257 -0.0327

no si
Pr(y|x) 0.6084 0.3916

q10new mujer
x= 5.49679 .37045
sd_x= 3.85987 .483443

. ** Tener ningun ingreso aumenta la probbilidad de racismo en 44.5%
. ** Misma direccion de efecto pero mucho menor en torno a la media o desviacion estandar
. prvalue, x(mujer=0 q10new=16)

logit: Predictions for racismo

Confidence intervals by delta method

95% Conf. Interval
Pr(y=si|x): 0.1122 [ 0.0497, 0.1748]
Pr(y=no|x): 0.8878 [ 0.8252, 0.9503]

q10new mujer
x= 16 0

. prvalue, x(mujer=1 q10new=0)

logit: Predictions for racismo

Confidence intervals by delta method

95% Conf. Interval
Pr(y=si|x): 0.6519 [ 0.5615, 0.7423]
Pr(y=no|x): 0.3481 [ 0.2577, 0.4385]

q10new mujer
x= 0 1

. ** Perfiles extremos
.
. ** Grafica
. prgen q10new, from(0) to(16) generate(ing_h) x(mujer=0) ci

logit: Predicted values as q10new varies from 0 to 16.

q10new mujer
x= 5.496788 0

. prgen q10new, from(0) to(16) generate(ing_m) x(mujer=1) ci

logit: Predicted values as q10new varies from 0 to 16.

q10new mujer
x= 5.496788 1

. label variable ing_hp1 "P(y=1|hombres)"

. label variable ing_mp1 "P(y=1|mujeres)"

. graph twoway (rarea ing_hp1lb ing_hp1ub ing_hx) ///
> (rarea ing_mp1lb ing_mp1ub ing_mx), ///
> ylabel(0(.1).7) name(G6, replace) ///
> xlabel(0(4)16) ///
> xtitle("Ingresos en el hogar") ///
> ytitle("P(Cree que personas de piel oscura" ///
> "son mas pobres por su cultura)")

.
. predict rlogit
(option pr assumed; Pr(racismo))
(207 missing values generated)

. sort mujer q10new

. edit mujer q10new racismo rlogit

. scatter rlogit q10new if mujer==0 || scatter rlogit q10new if mujer==1

.
. ** Tablas de frecuencia de proporciones
. tab urbano racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
urbano | no si | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
no | 58.95 41.05 | 100.00
si | 65.17 34.83 | 100.00
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 61.96 38.04 | 100.00

. tab q2 racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
edad | no si | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
17 | 0.00 100.00 | 100.00
18 | 20.00 80.00 | 100.00
19 | 57.89 42.11 | 100.00
20 | 53.33 46.67 | 100.00
21 | 51.61 48.39 | 100.00
22 | 91.67 8.33 | 100.00
23 | 64.29 35.71 | 100.00
24 | 52.17 47.83 | 100.00
25 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
26 | 63.16 36.84 | 100.00
27 | 81.82 18.18 | 100.00
28 | 81.25 18.75 | 100.00
29 | 75.00 25.00 | 100.00
30 | 72.73 27.27 | 100.00
31 | 53.33 46.67 | 100.00
32 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
33 | 73.33 26.67 | 100.00
34 | 62.50 37.50 | 100.00
35 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
36 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
37 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
38 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
39 | 73.33 26.67 | 100.00
40 | 45.45 54.55 | 100.00
41 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
42 | 80.00 20.00 | 100.00
43 | 76.92 23.08 | 100.00
44 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
45 | 45.45 54.55 | 100.00
46 | 72.73 27.27 | 100.00
47 | 71.43 28.57 | 100.00
48 | 64.29 35.71 | 100.00
49 | 72.73 27.27 | 100.00
50 | 42.86 57.14 | 100.00
51 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
52 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
53 | 80.00 20.00 | 100.00
54 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
55 | 63.64 36.36 | 100.00
56 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
57 | 28.57 71.43 | 100.00
58 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
59 | 80.00 20.00 | 100.00
60 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
61 | 57.14 42.86 | 100.00
62 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
63 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
64 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
65 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
66 | 33.33 66.67 | 100.00
67 | 40.00 60.00 | 100.00
68 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
69 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
70 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
71 | 75.00 25.00 | 100.00
72 | 33.33 66.67 | 100.00
73 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
75 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
76 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
77 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
78 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
79 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
80 | 50.00 50.00 | 100.00
89 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 61.96 38.04 | 100.00

. tab ed racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
a~os de educacion | no si | Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
Ninguno | 47.69 52.31 | 100.00
Primaria 1 | 40.00 60.00 | 100.00
Primaria 2 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
Primaria 3 | 70.00 30.00 | 100.00
Primaria 4 | 58.62 41.38 | 100.00
Primaria 5 | 61.54 38.46 | 100.00
Primaria 6 | 75.68 24.32 | 100.00
Secundaria 1 (primero | 35.71 64.29 | 100.00
Secundaria 2 (segundo | 55.17 44.83 | 100.00
Secundaria 3 (tercero | 58.93 41.07 | 100.00
Bachillerato, Magiste | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
Bachillerato, Magiste | 55.17 44.83 | 100.00
Bachillerato, Magiste | 65.69 34.31 | 100.00
Universitaria 1 | 60.00 40.00 | 100.00
Universitaria 2 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
Universitaria 3 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
Universitaria 4 | 75.00 25.00 | 100.00
Universitaria 5 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
Universitaria 6+ | 58.33 41.67 | 100.00
----------------------+----------------------+----------
Total | 61.89 38.11 | 100.00

. tab indigena racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
indigena | no si | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
no | 63.86 36.14 | 100.00
si | 59.17 40.83 | 100.00
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 62.00 38.00 | 100.00

. tab mujer racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
mujer | no si | Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
no | 65.20 34.80 | 100.00
si | 56.67 43.33 | 100.00
-----------+----------------------+----------
Total | 61.96 38.04 | 100.00

. tab colori racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
color de piel | no si | Total
--------------+----------------------+----------
2 | 75.00 25.00 | 100.00
3 | 51.02 48.98 | 100.00
4 | 68.18 31.82 | 100.00
5 | 35.62 64.38 | 100.00
6 | 79.07 20.93 | 100.00
7 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
--------------+----------------------+----------
Total | 61.96 38.04 | 100.00

. tab q10new racismo, row nofreq

| Considera cultura
| causa pobreza
ingresos del hogar | no si | Total
----------------------+----------------------+----------
[00] Ningún ingreso | 17.65 82.35 | 100.00
[01] Menos de 360 que | 52.17 47.83 | 100.00
[02] Entre 360 y 720 | 59.09 40.91 | 100.00
[03] Entre 721 y 1080 | 55.10 44.90 | 100.00
[04] Entre 1081 y 144 | 63.41 36.59 | 100.00
[05] Entre 1441 y 180 | 70.18 29.82 | 100.00
[06] Entre 1801 y 216 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
[07] Entre 2161 y 253 | 54.29 45.71 | 100.00
[08] Entre 2531 y 287 | 78.26 21.74 | 100.00
[09] Entre 2871 y 324 | 74.07 25.93 | 100.00
[10] Entre 3241 y 378 | 80.95 19.05 | 100.00
[11] Entre 3781 y 432 | 87.50 12.50 | 100.00
[12] Entre 4321 y 540 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
[13] Entre 5401 y 648 | 69.23 30.77 | 100.00
[14] Entre 6481 y 864 | 66.67 33.33 | 100.00
[15] Entre 8641 y 108 | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
[16] Más de 10810 que | 100.00 0.00 | 100.00
----------------------+----------------------+----------
Total | 60.17 39.83 | 100.00

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