EN ESTE DOCUMENTO SE MUESTRAN LOS DOS CABLES ORIGINALES EN ORDEN DE FECHA: CABLE#1: 141280 Embassy Guatemala 08GUATEMALA150 2/13/08 17:24 C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000150 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2022 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PBTS, GT SUBJECT: UNE CONGRESSMAN DISCUSSES INTERNAL PARTY DIVISIONS AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS Classified By: Ambassador James M. Derham for reasons 1.4 (b&d). Summary ------- 1. (C) Influential UNE Congressman Manuel Baldizon told the Ambassador that the governing UNE's congressional bench is divided, and that he is the leader of the largest sub-group within the UNE bench. He said many UNE deputies resent President Colom and UNE President of Congress Eduardo Meyer, and that titular Bench Leader Mario Taracena also enjoys little internal support. Baldizon also discussed plans to reform the constitution to provide for a civilian defense minister and lay the groundwork for electoral reform. He was optimistic that the Colom Government will resolve the border dispute with Belize, but said the negotiation with Belize is not yet sufficiently advanced to warrant congressional action. End Summary. Governing UNE's Bench Divided ----------------------------- 2. (C) Ambassador and Pol/Econ Couns met February 11 with Congressmen Manuel Baldizon Mendez and Ricardo Villate Villatoro of the governing National Union of Hope (UNE). Baldizon is the Chairman of the powerful Finance Committee and has presidential aspirations for 2011. When asked whether press reports characterizing the 51-member UNE congressional bench as divided were true, Baldizon confirmed they were. Specifically, the bench is divided into three groups, Baldizon said: Seven legislators are loyal to First Lady Sandra de Colom, three or four are loyal to President Colom, and he termed a third group of approximately 37 "The Majority," which Baldizon asserted he controlled. Baldizon allowed that an additional one or two are loyal to UNE President of Congress Eduardo Meyer. He alluded to having used his chairmanship of the Finance Committee during the last Congress to earmark funds for members' home districts, thus winning their loyalty. 3. (C) Baldizon said many UNE deputies are angry at President Colom for having appointed relatively unknown departmental governors loyal to himself, rather than allowing deputies to have a say in the appointments for their respective departments. Colom designated Mario Taracena as UNE Bench Leader in recognition of his having led the UNE campaign's attacks on opposition candidate Otto Perez Molina, Baldizon said. However Taracena, whose mercurial temperament is well known, is widely disliked. Most UNE bench members also distrust UNE President of Congress Eduardo Meyer, Baldizon said, because he composed Congress' Board of Directors without seeking the party's views. Baldizon also discussed internal divisions within the center-right FRG and GANA parties, saying that most loyalties in the current Congress are to individual leaders rather than to parties. UNE Seeks to Reform Constitution -------------------------------- 4. (C) Asked about his legislative priorities, Baldizon said that so far he has approximately 80 of 105 votes needed to reform the constitution. Specifically, the UNE seeks to: Provide for a civilian defense minister, rather than a military one, as the current constitution requires; reduce the number of deputies in Congress and do away with parties' national electoral lists; and allow the GOG to submit its territorial claim against Belize to the binding arbitration of the International Court of Justice. The UNE hopes to reduce the number of deputies from 158 to about 115, Baldizon said. Each voter would vote for 30 individual deputies, Qsaid. Each voter would vote for 30 individual deputies, rather than for parties' national lists with a similar number of candidates. When Ambassador questioned the advisability of asking each voter to pick 30 candidates, Baldizon responded that this was only one of a number of possible models. Border Negotiation Not Ready for Congressional Action --------------------------------------------- -------- 5. (C) While Congress should proceed now with constitutional reforms on elections and allowing a civilian to serve as defense minister, he said congressional action to convoke a referendum submitting Guatemala's historical claim to Belizean territory to the International Court of Justice should wait. The two parties have not yet determined precisely on which elements of their territorial dispute they will ask the International Court of Justice to rule. Given the political sensitivity of the Belize issue, Congress should not act until the negotiations have advanced further, Baldizon asserted. Comment ------- 6. (C) Most informed observers' estimates of the true number of UNE deputies loyal to Baldizon are lower than the 37 he claimed, but there is no doubt that Baldizon is a force to be reckoned with in Congress. While at times paying lip service to President Colom's leadership of the UNE, Baldizon on this occasion and others made clear that he will jealously guard his role as congressional power-broker. For example, Baldizon was the UNE lead in the congressional revision of the 2008 budget last December. He claimed to be speaking for President-Elect Colom, but reportedly was the real decision-maker on the key budget questions. 7. (C) The UNE bench, which is the largest in Congress but is nonetheless a minority, is indeed divided. In addition to cobbling together support from opposition parties, President Colom will need to ensure that his own party's congressional bench stands behind him. It is worth noting, however, that many find the assertiveness of the 37 year-old Baldizon, who has already made his presidential ambitions known, to be off-putting. He too will need to be attentive to his base of support to ensure it remains firm. Derham 7786 184370 12/22/08 15:58 08GUATEMALA1573 Embassy Guatemala CONFIDENTIAL 08GUATEMALA1163|08GUATEMALA150 C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001573 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV, PINR, GT SUBJECT: DEFECTION OF UNE DEPUTIES A MINOR CHALLENGE FOR COLOM REF: A. GUATEMALA 0150 B. GUATEMALA 1163 Classified By: Pol/Econ Counselor Drew Blakeney for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 1. (C) Summary. The December 4 departure from the governing UNE's congressional bench of influential congressman Manuel Baldizon and nine other deputies presents a new political challenge for President Colom. However, with the continuing support of the GANA and FRG benches, Colom should be able to garner the votes to pass legislation in the coming months. End Summary. 2. (C) On December 4, ten congressional deputies of the governing UNE party left their congressional bench (though not the party). The group is taking the name of "the Liberty Bench," and is led by the influential chairman of the congressional Finance Committee, Manuel Baldizon. Baldizon, a wealthy 38 year-old lawyer from Guatemala's northern Peten Department, rose to prominence via a patronage approach to politics funded by his family's beer fortune. Though he is a self-described center-leftist, there is little substance to his politics. Many observers believe that Baldizon bought the support of the other nine defecting UNE deputies. Thanks to Baldizon's firm legislative support for the interests of media magnate Angel Gonzalez, he has continued to receive sympathetic media coverage. 3. (C) Baldizon announced his presidential aspirations several years ago. He laid down a challenge to President Colom on the eve of Colom's January 2008 inauguration by publicly saying that Colom would have to negotiate with him if he wanted support for his legislative priorities. In announcing their departure from the UNE bench, Baldizon and his supporters denounced a "lack of internal democracy" within the UNE. (Nte: On December 3, the UNE leadership had replaed bench leader Mario Taracena -- who is not in Baldizon's camp -- with Nery Samayoa. UNE deputies reportedly were not consulted. End Note.) Baldizon has made no secret of his enmity for First Lady Sandra de Colom, telling Embassy officers on several occasions that he resents her imposition of policy priorities on the UNE congressional bench. As early as February 2008, he told Ambassador Derham of his plans to break apart the UNE bench (ref a). "El Periodico" columnist Sylvia Gereda told Pol/Econ Counselor that Baldizon had come by her office to show her two boxes of documents which, he alleged, implicated Sandra de Colom in corruption. Baldizon had said he would begin sharing the documents with Gereda after the start of the New Year. Asked whether the Liberty Bench might contribute to Guatemala's democracy by offering substantive opposition in Congress, Gereda said no -- Baldizon's maneuver was about power politics, not substance. 4. (U) Immediately following his defection from the UNE bench, Baldizon declared his candidacy for the March 2009 election of the UNE Party Secretary General. The move was widely seen as a direct challenge to Sandra de Colom, whom Vice President Espada publicly mentioned as a possible candidate for the post. An UNE "Honor Tribunal" temporarily suspended Baldizon from the party and barred his candidacy for Secretary General. He left the country for the U.S., alleging that he feared for his personal safety. 5. (C) The departure of the "Liberty Bench" deputies brings the UNE's number of congressional seats down to 39 from its original 51. President Colom put on a brave face, saying the UNE bench was better off without the "troublemakers." In conversation with the Ambassador, FRG Deputy Zury Rios said Colom would have no trouble garnering the votes needed to QColom would have no trouble garnering the votes needed to pass legislation. The FRG and GANA would continue to firmly support the government, and the government might also sometimes enjoy the support of the smaller PAN, Unionist, and Guatemala benches. 6. (C) Comment: Having co-opted the FRG and GANA, and with strong prospects for support from several smaller parties, President Colom should be able to win important legislative votes in the coming months despite the Baldizon-led defection. Some legislation, however, requires a two-thirds vote. In such cases, the Liberty Bench may be able to exercise some influence. Intimidated by credible government threats to publicly implicate him in the congressional embezzlement scandal, opposition leader Otto Perez Molina of the Patriot Party has largely dropped out of sight (ref b). While Deputies Roxana Baldetti (PP) and Nineth Montenegro (EPG) occasionally oppose the government from Congress's floor, there is little real opposition left in Congress. In so far as anyone is playing an effective opposition role, it is the press and private sector. McFarland 10177 201493 4/8/09 17:07 09GUATEMALA341 Embassy Guatemala UNCLASSIFIED UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000341 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN, DRL, AND PM E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MASS, PREL, PHUM, PINS, PINR, GT SUBJECT: GUATEMALA HUMAN RIGHTS LEAHY AMENDMENT VETTING REQUEST - 35 The Military Group at Embassy Guatemala has identified the following individuals to participate in the IV United Nations Staff Officer Course, to be held from May 4 to 29, 2009, at CREOMPAZ (Regional Center for Peace Keeping Operations), Alta Verapaz, Guatemala. Embassy conducted its own review and found no credible information that the individuals below have been involved in gross human rights violations. Please conduct human rights vetting and advise of any results by April 23, 2009. NAME: Marco Vinicio BALDIZON RIVAS RANK: Infantry Captain, Guatemalan Army DOB: April 21, 1974 POB: Guatemala, Guatemala NAME: Claro Antonio GONZALEZ KLUSMANN RANK: Quartermaster Captain, Guatemalan Army DOB: May 13, 1975 POB: Escuintla, Guatemala NAME: Otto Isauro MENDEZ CALDERON RANK: Engineer Lieutenant Colonel, Guatemalan Army DOB: August 28, 1964 POB: Quetzaltenango, Guatemala NAME: Ebin Noe SOLARES SANTOS RANK: Infantry Captain, Guatemalan Army DOB: August 21, 1973 POB: Santa Rosa, Guatemala NAME: Jose Ricardo SOSA MIRON RANK: Infantry Lieutenant Colonel, Guatemalan Army DOB: January 2, 1966 POB: Guatemala, Guatemala MCFARLAND 10555 233946 11/9/09 19:34 09GUATEMALA969 Embassy Guatemala CONFIDENTIAL 08GUATEMALA1573|09GUATEMALA929 C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000969 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2024/11/09 TAGS: PGOV, SNAR, PINR, KDEM, SOCI, GT SUBJECT: Congress Elects New Executive Board; Pre-Election Jockeying Under Way REF: GUATEMALA 929; 2008 GUATEMALA 1573 CLASSIFIED BY: Drew G. Blakeney, Political and Economic Counselor, State, P/E; REASON: 1.4B, D Summary 1. (C) On October 27 Congress elected a new Executive Board. Roberto Alejos, of the governing UNE party, was re-elected as President of Congress. Alejos has been helpful to the Embassy, particularly on rule of law reform issues, and we anticipate two more important rule of law reform measures will soon pass with his shepherding. The other eight members all hail from the UNE congressional bench or those of parties working in coalition with UNE. The congressional landscape is already changing as deputies jockey to maximize their opportunities for re-election and access to pork barrel spending. Manuel Baldizon's LIDER bench, which splintered from the UNE in December 2008, is now the second-largest in Congress and is growing. The governing UNE's ad hoc alliance with center-right parties should hold together until early next year, at which time it will likely fray, entailing a commensurate diminution in the government's ability to pass legislation. We do not anticipate that congressionally jockeying will negatively affect our interests, at least for the near term. End Summary. Helpful President of Congress Re-Elected 2. (C) On October 27 Congress re-elected Roberto Alejos, of the governing UNE party, as its president, and elected the eight other members of its Executive Board. Alejos, who is involved in an internal UNE power struggle with First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom, has been very helpful to the Embassy and the UN-led International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) on rule of law reform legislation as well as the recent magistrates selection process (ref a). Pending reform legislation that the Embassy anticipates will pass soon, with Alejos's shepherding, are an asset seizure law and a reform of the Injunctions (amparos) Law, which is often abused by organized criminals to stop legal proceedings against them on specious grounds. Another piece of reform legislation that would eliminate bearer shares, which are regularly used by narcotraffickers for money laundering purposes, may take longer since it would entail abolition of business ownership via "anonymous societies." Instead, the names of business owners would be registered, a step opposed by many legitimate business people. 3. (U) All of the other eight members of the new Executive Board, which will be seated in mid-January at the beginning of the next session of Congress, are also either from the governing UNE or parties that have been working in an ad hoc alliance with it for more than a year. They are: First Vice President Gabriel Heredia of GANA; Second Vice President Ivan Arevalo of the FRG; Third Vice President Carlos Fion of Guatemala Bench; First Secretary (in charge of Congress's finances) Christian Boussinot of UNE; Second Secretary Baudilio Hichos of UCN (a small party based in eastern Guatemala reportedly tied to narcotraffickers); Third Secretary Fernando Garcia of Guatemala Bench; Fourth Secretary Reynabel Estrada of GANA; and Fifth Secretary Mario Rivera of FRG. Following the LIDER (for Cash) 4. (C) Many deputies have already changed parties since the 2007 election. Where they sit has not so far impacted how they have voted on the rule of law reform legislation of paramount interest to the Embassy; most such votes continued to be nearly unanimously in favor of reform. Most parties' platforms/ideologies are weak; personalities, personal relationships, pork barrel politics, and at times bribes are more important factors influencing deputies' affiliations. In December 2008 Manuel Baldizon and nine other UNE deputies left the governing party's bench after Baldizon realized that First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom, rather than he, would likely be the UNE's candidate for president in 2011 (ref b). Baldizon's LIDER bench has since grown to 24 deputies, helped by Baldizon's unannounced but widely known offer of USD 61,000 to any deputy who switches to his bench. (Note: This is not illegal.) Most of the LIDER deputies were members of the UNE's bench. Another significant development was the splintering of the Guatemala Bench, consisting of twelve deputies close to the previous Berger government, from GANA following an internal dispute about leadership roles. Also, ten deputies left the hard-line, rightist opposition Patriot Party amidst scandal or due to disputes with Roxana Baldetti, the party's demanding and imposing bench leader. 5. (SBU) The balance of power in the 158-member Congress has shifted since the 2007 election as follows. 2007 Now UNE (center-left) 51 32 GANA (center/center-right) 37 25 Patriot Party (right) 29 19 FRG (center-right) 14 14 Unionist Party (center-right) 7 7 UCN (narco) 5 5 CASA (center-right) 5 3 EPG (left) 4 1 PAN (left/center-left) 3 3 URNG (hard-left) 2 2 Democratic Union (center) 1 1 Guatemala Bench (center-right) -- 12 LIDER (center-left) -- 24 Independents (mixed) -- 10 As Elections Approach, UNE Under Strain 6. (C) Looking to the 2011 presidential and congressional elections, Members of Congress are already considering whether to switch parties or declare themselves independent in order to maximize chances of re-election, opportunities to bring pork barrel spending back to home districts, or personal enrichment. Newly-elected First Secretary Christian Boussinot, of the governing UNE party, told Pol/Econ Counselor that First Lady Sandra de Colom's increasing control of the UNE bench, and intention to run a presidential campaign "based on class warfare and doing away with the army," was alienating many centrist UNE members including himself and President of Congress Alejos. Boussinot said he would eventually leave the UNE bench, as would 5-10 other centrist deputies. He anticipated that the defectors would break more or less evenly for the Patriot Party and LIDER. Such a development would make the UNE, LIDER, and Patriot Party benches roughly the same size, a dramatic departure from the 2007 congressional landscape. GANA, the Big Piñata 7. (C) GANA Co-Secretary General Manuel Barquin told Pol/Econ Counselor that he and Co-Secretary General Jaime Martinez recognized too late in the magistrates selection process that it had been a mistake to support First Lady Sandra de Colom's slate of candidates. They had done so in the spirit of maintaining their working alliance with the governing UNE, but CICIG Commissioner Castresana's exposure of six of the initially-elected magistrates as politically compromised (or worse) had harmed center-right GANA's standing with its members. In the wake of the bruising affair, Barquin said, the party might abandon its alliance with UNE and return to its center-right roots. "No they won't," former GANA Deputy Rosa Maria de Frade told Pol/Econ Counselor (now a member of the breakaway Guatemala Bench). "They will stay with UNE until the distribution of the 2010 budget's pork barrel spending is done, sometime around February 2010," de Frade said. Asked how they will reconcile their center-right constituency with ally UNE's plans to run the leftist First Lady for president in 2011, Barquin admitted GANA has a problem. "We'll probably have to break with UNE," Barquin conceded, "maybe early in 2010 would be the right time do that." (Note: GANA ran center-right Alejandro Giammattei for President in 2007; he was the overwhelming favorite of middle-upper and upper-class voters during the first round of the election.) 8. (C) GANA Deputy and former President of Congress Jorge Mendez Herbruger told Pol/Econ Counselor that the GANA bench probably would not survive 2010 intact. "Some GANA deputies are strong in rural areas where the UNE has little representation; therefore UNE will continue sending them funds in exchange for their continued political support ... those deputies will stick with UNE even through Sandra de Colom's presidential campaign," Mendez reasoned. "GANA leader Jaime Martinez and about eight more of our deputies think he is presidential material, which the rest of us know he's not ... some of those of us in the latter group will switch to the Patriot Party, while others of us will support Harold Caballeros for president," he said. The Missing Preacher 9. (C) Several right-leaning deputies who are unenthusiastic about the prospect of a Gen. Perez Molina (Patriot Party) presidency anticipate that prominent preacher Harold Caballeros might provide better leadership, and want to represent his VIVA party's interests in Congress. However, so far VIVA has no congressional representation. "Where is Harold Caballeros," GANA's Mendez rhetorically asked Pol/Econ Counselor. "Hopefully he doesn't think he can win and govern exclusively with people drawn from his church," Mendez said, "he needs experienced political organizers and operators ... I would form such a group for him, but he's showing no interest." Caballeros, who is known to be a better preacher than organizer, told Pol/Econ Counselor that he is concentrating on organizing at the local, community level for the time being, rather than the national level. He acknowledged that experienced congressional operators could be an asset, but said he also thinks there may be value in keeping his distance from the traditional political class, whose notorious corruption is at odds with the centerpiece of his political platform, "vision and values." Independent Deputy Oliverio Garcia, the widely-respected chairman of the Legislation Committee, told Pol/Econ Counselor he left the Patriot Party because he "did not think Gen. Otto Perez Molina is smart enough to be president, and because (bench leader) Roxana Baldetti is too quick to crush any views within the party that don't mesh closely with her own." Garcia also hoped Caballeros would run, saying he is a more thoughtful and less divisive rightist leader than is Perez Molina. Comment 10. (C) Alejos' re-election is good news for the Embassy, particularly where our and CICIG's rule of law reform efforts are concerned. As mentioned, we anticipate that Alejos will help ensure passage during the coming month of a new asset seizures law and an important reform of the Injunctions Law. Members of Congress are already switching parties in accordance with their assessment of where their bread is best buttered. The tempo of these movements is likely to increase once they have wrung what they can from the 2010 budgeting process, which we anticipate will happen early next year. U.S.-educated evangelical preacher Harold Caballeros has quite a few potential congressional supporters waiting in the wings, but has yet to respond to their overtures. Anticipating the presidential candidacy of leftist First Lady Sandra de Colom, more deputies may leave the UNE and follow the already well-blazed trail to LIDER, picking up checks along the way. LIDER chief Manuel Baldizon offers little in terms of governing vision, but has strong organizational skills. He is well regarded by less-educated Guatemalans, who like his caudillo style, wealth, and claimed concern for the welfare of the elderly. The Patriot Party is not presently actively recruiting other Members of Congress, but many believe Gen. Perez Molina will be the front-runner heading into the 2011 election, so that party's congressional bench is also likely to grow. With its congressional bench shrinking and its congressional alliance likely to fray in early 2010, the Colom Government's window for passing legislation is starting to close. We anticipate, however, that Members of Congress will continue to vote for the rule of law reform legislation that we and CICIG support, regardless of party/bench affiliation. While many members would prefer that such legislation not pass, they are unwilling to be publicly exposed as defending narcotraffickers' interests. MCFARLAND ----------------------------------------------------------------------- CABLE#2: 233946 11/9/09 19:34 09GUATEMALA969 Embassy Guatemala CONFIDENTIAL 08GUATEMALA1573|09GUATEMALA929 C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000969 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2024/11/09 TAGS: PGOV, SNAR, PINR, KDEM, SOCI, GT SUBJECT: Congress Elects New Executive Board; Pre-Election Jockeying Under Way REF: GUATEMALA 929; 2008 GUATEMALA 1573 CLASSIFIED BY: Drew G. Blakeney, Political and Economic Counselor, State, P/E; REASON: 1.4B, D Summary 1. (C) On October 27 Congress elected a new Executive Board. Roberto Alejos, of the governing UNE party, was re-elected as President of Congress. Alejos has been helpful to the Embassy, particularly on rule of law reform issues, and we anticipate two more important rule of law reform measures will soon pass with his shepherding. The other eight members all hail from the UNE congressional bench or those of parties working in coalition with UNE. The congressional landscape is already changing as deputies jockey to maximize their opportunities for re-election and access to pork barrel spending. Manuel Baldizon's LIDER bench, which splintered from the UNE in December 2008, is now the second-largest in Congress and is growing. The governing UNE's ad hoc alliance with center-right parties should hold together until early next year, at which time it will likely fray, entailing a commensurate diminution in the government's ability to pass legislation. We do not anticipate that congressionally jockeying will negatively affect our interests, at least for the near term. End Summary. Helpful President of Congress Re-Elected 2. (C) On October 27 Congress re-elected Roberto Alejos, of the governing UNE party, as its president, and elected the eight other members of its Executive Board. Alejos, who is involved in an internal UNE power struggle with First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom, has been very helpful to the Embassy and the UN-led International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) on rule of law reform legislation as well as the recent magistrates selection process (ref a). Pending reform legislation that the Embassy anticipates will pass soon, with Alejos's shepherding, are an asset seizure law and a reform of the Injunctions (amparos) Law, which is often abused by organized criminals to stop legal proceedings against them on specious grounds. Another piece of reform legislation that would eliminate bearer shares, which are regularly used by narcotraffickers for money laundering purposes, may take longer since it would entail abolition of business ownership via "anonymous societies." Instead, the names of business owners would be registered, a step opposed by many legitimate business people. 3. (U) All of the other eight members of the new Executive Board, which will be seated in mid-January at the beginning of the next session of Congress, are also either from the governing UNE or parties that have been working in an ad hoc alliance with it for more than a year. They are: First Vice President Gabriel Heredia of GANA; Second Vice President Ivan Arevalo of the FRG; Third Vice President Carlos Fion of Guatemala Bench; First Secretary (in charge of Congress's finances) Christian Boussinot of UNE; Second Secretary Baudilio Hichos of UCN (a small party based in eastern Guatemala reportedly tied to narcotraffickers); Third Secretary Fernando Garcia of Guatemala Bench; Fourth Secretary Reynabel Estrada of GANA; and Fifth Secretary Mario Rivera of FRG. Following the LIDER (for Cash) 4. (C) Many deputies have already changed parties since the 2007 election. Where they sit has not so far impacted how they have voted on the rule of law reform legislation of paramount interest to the Embassy; most such votes continued to be nearly unanimously in favor of reform. Most parties' platforms/ideologies are weak; personalities, personal relationships, pork barrel politics, and at times bribes are more important factors influencing deputies' affiliations. In December 2008 Manuel Baldizon and nine other UNE deputies left the governing party's bench after Baldizon realized that First Lady Sandra Torres de Colom, rather than he, would likely be the UNE's candidate for president in 2011 (ref b). Baldizon's LIDER bench has since grown to 24 deputies, helped by Baldizon's unannounced but widely known offer of USD 61,000 to any deputy who switches to his bench. (Note: This is not illegal.) Most of the LIDER deputies were members of the UNE's bench. Another significant development was the splintering of the Guatemala Bench, consisting of twelve deputies close to the previous Berger government, from GANA following an internal dispute about leadership roles. Also, ten deputies left the hard-line, rightist opposition Patriot Party amidst scandal or due to disputes with Roxana Baldetti, the party's demanding and imposing bench leader. 5. (SBU) The balance of power in the 158-member Congress has shifted since the 2007 election as follows. 2007 Now UNE (center-left) 51 32 GANA (center/center-right) 37 25 Patriot Party (right) 29 19 FRG (center-right) 14 14 Unionist Party (center-right) 7 7 UCN (narco) 5 5 CASA (center-right) 5 3 EPG (left) 4 1 PAN (left/center-left) 3 3 URNG (hard-left) 2 2 Democratic Union (center) 1 1 Guatemala Bench (center-right) -- 12 LIDER (center-left) -- 24 Independents (mixed) -- 10 As Elections Approach, UNE Under Strain 6. (C) Looking to the 2011 presidential and congressional elections, Members of Congress are already considering whether to switch parties or declare themselves independent in order to maximize chances of re-election, opportunities to bring pork barrel spending back to home districts, or personal enrichment. Newly-elected First Secretary Christian Boussinot, of the governing UNE party, told Pol/Econ Counselor that First Lady Sandra de Colom's increasing control of the UNE bench, and intention to run a presidential campaign "based on class warfare and doing away with the army," was alienating many centrist UNE members including himself and President of Congress Alejos. Boussinot said he would eventually leave the UNE bench, as would 5-10 other centrist deputies. He anticipated that the defectors would break more or less evenly for the Patriot Party and LIDER. Such a development would make the UNE, LIDER, and Patriot Party benches roughly the same size, a dramatic departure from the 2007 congressional landscape. GANA, the Big Piñata 7. (C) GANA Co-Secretary General Manuel Barquin told Pol/Econ Counselor that he and Co-Secretary General Jaime Martinez recognized too late in the magistrates selection process that it had been a mistake to support First Lady Sandra de Colom's slate of candidates. They had done so in the spirit of maintaining their working alliance with the governing UNE, but CICIG Commissioner Castresana's exposure of six of the initially-elected magistrates as politically compromised (or worse) had harmed center-right GANA's standing with its members. In the wake of the bruising affair, Barquin said, the party might abandon its alliance with UNE and return to its center-right roots. "No they won't," former GANA Deputy Rosa Maria de Frade told Pol/Econ Counselor (now a member of the breakaway Guatemala Bench). "They will stay with UNE until the distribution of the 2010 budget's pork barrel spending is done, sometime around February 2010," de Frade said. Asked how they will reconcile their center-right constituency with ally UNE's plans to run the leftist First Lady for president in 2011, Barquin admitted GANA has a problem. "We'll probably have to break with UNE," Barquin conceded, "maybe early in 2010 would be the right time do that." (Note: GANA ran center-right Alejandro Giammattei for President in 2007; he was the overwhelming favorite of middle-upper and upper-class voters during the first round of the election.) 8. (C) GANA Deputy and former President of Congress Jorge Mendez Herbruger told Pol/Econ Counselor that the GANA bench probably would not survive 2010 intact. "Some GANA deputies are strong in rural areas where the UNE has little representation; therefore UNE will continue sending them funds in exchange for their continued political support ... those deputies will stick with UNE even through Sandra de Colom's presidential campaign," Mendez reasoned. "GANA leader Jaime Martinez and about eight more of our deputies think he is presidential material, which the rest of us know he's not ... some of those of us in the latter group will switch to the Patriot Party, while others of us will support Harold Caballeros for president," he said. The Missing Preacher 9. (C) Several right-leaning deputies who are unenthusiastic about the prospect of a Gen. Perez Molina (Patriot Party) presidency anticipate that prominent preacher Harold Caballeros might provide better leadership, and want to represent his VIVA party's interests in Congress. However, so far VIVA has no congressional representation. "Where is Harold Caballeros," GANA's Mendez rhetorically asked Pol/Econ Counselor. "Hopefully he doesn't think he can win and govern exclusively with people drawn from his church," Mendez said, "he needs experienced political organizers and operators ... I would form such a group for him, but he's showing no interest." Caballeros, who is known to be a better preacher than organizer, told Pol/Econ Counselor that he is concentrating on organizing at the local, community level for the time being, rather than the national level. He acknowledged that experienced congressional operators could be an asset, but said he also thinks there may be value in keeping his distance from the traditional political class, whose notorious corruption is at odds with the centerpiece of his political platform, "vision and values." Independent Deputy Oliverio Garcia, the widely-respected chairman of the Legislation Committee, told Pol/Econ Counselor he left the Patriot Party because he "did not think Gen. Otto Perez Molina is smart enough to be president, and because (bench leader) Roxana Baldetti is too quick to crush any views within the party that don't mesh closely with her own." Garcia also hoped Caballeros would run, saying he is a more thoughtful and less divisive rightist leader than is Perez Molina. Comment 10. (C) Alejos' re-election is good news for the Embassy, particularly where our and CICIG's rule of law reform efforts are concerned. As mentioned, we anticipate that Alejos will help ensure passage during the coming month of a new asset seizures law and an important reform of the Injunctions Law. Members of Congress are already switching parties in accordance with their assessment of where their bread is best buttered. The tempo of these movements is likely to increase once they have wrung what they can from the 2010 budgeting process, which we anticipate will happen early next year. U.S.-educated evangelical preacher Harold Caballeros has quite a few potential congressional supporters waiting in the wings, but has yet to respond to their overtures. Anticipating the presidential candidacy of leftist First Lady Sandra de Colom, more deputies may leave the UNE and follow the already well-blazed trail to LIDER, picking up checks along the way. LIDER chief Manuel Baldizon offers little in terms of governing vision, but has strong organizational skills. He is well regarded by less-educated Guatemalans, who like his caudillo style, wealth, and claimed concern for the welfare of the elderly. The Patriot Party is not presently actively recruiting other Members of Congress, but many believe Gen. Perez Molina will be the front-runner heading into the 2011 election, so that party's congressional bench is also likely to grow. With its congressional bench shrinking and its congressional alliance likely to fray in early 2010, the Colom Government's window for passing legislation is starting to close. We anticipate, however, that Members of Congress will continue to vote for the rule of law reform legislation that we and CICIG support, regardless of party/bench affiliation. While many members would prefer that such legislation not pass, they are unwilling to be publicly exposed as defending narcotraffickers' interests. MCFARLAND